During the last month, the grain markets have been mixed due to many different factors. One big impact on the agriculturals was the USDA reporting. The March 31st report was bullish for soybeans, mainly due to the continued strong demand. Although corn wasn’t as lucky. The report indicated the bearish trend for new crop corn may be here to stay, the anticipated increase in corn planting acreage being the leading factor. Corn prices have been lower in the futures, causing concern for farmers. Weather premium has also played a significant role. Unseasonably colder temps and snow in parts of the U.S. northern plains may reduce corn planting and move more seeding over to soybeans.
Now for more on soybeans, stocks were at the lowest levels in six years, leading to higher prices as well. Brazil's record soybean crop is expected to impact global supply. Wheat prices have been barley affected by all the noise in corn and beans. If we dig deeper into trader’s patterns though, it appears that wheat investors are positioning themselves to the short-side.
As we move onto the warmer months in the US, traders should monitor energy prices too, they can be directly correlated to the grain market. Prices overall appear ready to move higher, but at a gradual pace - not as fast as many farmers and investors would like. The USDA planting progress reports will remain critical. Weather conditions will also be a wild-card.
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